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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.