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Only two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots added after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed Zohran now. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the record participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on the island with a high participation. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there was some opposition. But no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.