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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|