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The Ashes could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Squad Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test side being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that train a-coming, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.